The Final Blog: Predictions

My final blog, on this wonderful Sunday night (From Austin, Texas) and I plan on talking to you about politics. Dirty, simple, politics. Prediction time from this mouth, lets see what happens.

A couple weeks ago, I gave some insight to the key Senate races, and some mild predictions, tonight I make my final ones. Its time to go.

Senate

Ok, so the Democrats have been in full campaign and get out the vote mode. Conservatives have stuck with ads. So now, the Democrats have gained some momentum. Conservatives have run out of money and seem to be saying, "Hey, we will take the house (maybe) so that's good enough."

Dems retain 52 seats (With VP Biden it is 53) and the Reps don't quite make it. But a good push, nonetheless.

House

The house is impossible to predict. There is very little polling done in the districts for house representatives, so its hard to predict. Arguably, it comes down to who gets people out in their districts.

At the end of the day, the Reps will have a slight majority, with 222 seats. This creates a split congress, which if you ask John Adams and Ben Franklin, is the way it is always supposed to be.

Governors

Another tough thing to predict, because states are all about getting voters out. Like in our state of Texas, their are actually more registered Democrats than there are Republicans, but because it never appears Democrats have a chance (Not since the 80's), they don't get out.

I am predicting a split governorship. 25 states for the Dems, 25 for the Reps. Lots of angry arguing.

It has been a pleasure to write this blog, I hope you all enjoyed it. I have certainly enjoyed writing it. My intention was to provide unbiased predictions that represented facts and polling, not any emotional issues. I hope to your satisfaction I succeeded.

Remember, you have NO right to complain if you don't vote. Literally, if I hear you bitch, I will ask you if you voted, and if you say no, I will tape your mouth. Exercise your right, not your jaw.

Politics of A Different Kind

Usually, I take to this space to talk national politics. But tonight, for just one time, I will take a break and talk another type of politics.

BCS politics.

There is much talk about the unfairness of the BCS, how it is biased, slanted to the big schools. The old daddy network, the big dogs getting richer.

But around TCU's campus, people seem to forget a really simple fact. Something that is really obvious, writing on the wall. Like gospel, from his mouth.

Gary Patterson is a fan of the bowl system, and doesn't favor a bowl playoff.

And he still doesn't... And he has a very very good reason. He has gotten TCU to its current location in the college football BECAUSE of the bowl system. In a playoff system, he would have to beat 3 of 4 of the biggest and best teams in the nation to be champs. This is arguably just as hard, if not harder, than it is currently.

The bowl system has given Gary a chance to live in weak conferences, building up his team from its lowly days to the juggernaut it is today, all while making money in lower bowl games, living through the tough days.

If Gary doesn't want a playoff yet, I don't want a playoff yet. TCU is two spots away from that game, and thats closer than they could get in a playoff, imo.

Gary is my homeboy. Thats it.

16 Days Away Before The Biggest Day Of Our Lives

Not really, the biggest. But, if you watch cable anything, you would think it is.

(And sorry if you missed me last week... I thought we had fall break off... Obviously Broc thinks break is just communist speak for WORK HARDER!)

Well, lets review the races shall we? And I just want to preface this whole thing with one statement, which I hope is obvious. I am not a liberal, I am not a conservative, I am a number cruncher. I look at politics through eyes of reality, not sensationalism. Which is the way we should all look at politics, if you ask me.

Senate Race

The numbers look right now, and Republican spending suggests, the Senate is largely lost for the conservatives. Inouye(HI), Mikulski(MD), Schumer(NY), and Leahy(VT) are all very safe. Chris Coons(DE) seems to have no intentions of flubbing the race to national punching bag Christine O'Donnell, Kristen Gillibrand(NY) seems to be totally safe against Crazy Joe DioGuardi. Ron Wyden(OR) has extended his lead to +20pts against the mad scientist Jim Huffman, and republican looking Richard Blumenthal(CT) seems to have WWF star Linda McMahon in the sleeper. And of course, Americas true sweetheart mom Patty Murray(WA) seems to have gained the upper hand against Tea Party favorite Dino Rossi.

This gives the Democrats 49 safe seats to the Republicans 46. Because of Joe Bidens vote, the Dem's only need one more seat for a majority, and I think they will get it. There are about 5 races still up for grabs, lets look at them.

Barbara Boxer(D) Vs. Carly Fiorina(R): The race for the open California seat is getting good. Barbara Boxer, long believed to be safe, has had a tough time against the former HP CEO Fiorina who brings the aura of fiscal responsibility with her as a former business woman. But, Boxer is incredibly popular in California, and the population centers of the state, which determine the electorate, HATE all conservative candidates. The last 15 polls, spanning the last month, have all had Boxer in the lead by anywhere from 2 to 9 points. The thought here is, Boxer will win reelection, probably by about 4-5 points.

Michael Bennet(D) vs. Ken Buck(R): As a state, Colorado has no idea what it is. Conservative mountain farmers or progressive ski lovers, it is totally lost. It was a big pick up state in the 2008 elections, but appears to be converted to Republican territory here in 2010. Bennet, who is incredibly boring, is losing by an average of 2pts to his republican challenger, but Bennet is still believed to have a strong chance... Why? Because Buck has some extremely suspect opinions that don't really jive with Colorado population centers, like that pot shouldn't be legal, and that homosexuality is akin to alcoholism in that "it is a personal choice." But, in this atmosphere, even the dumbest senate candidates can win. And in the end, unless Bennet gets more democratic support, Buck will probably pull it off.

Giannoulias(D) vs. Kirk(R): This is frat boy vs. opie in the race for President Obama's old seat, which was famously put up for sale by former Illinois Governor Roddy B. Literally, this race is tied. Kirk had held a tiny lead about a month ago, but it was never more than 2pts, well within the margin for error, and the democratic push right now seems to be helping Giannoulias. In the end, with a state like Illinois, there are two big factors: Auto unions, and Chicago. Ok, so the Dem's have Chicago, Giannoulias is extremely popular there. The auto unions, well, lets think... Who just recently bailed out GM and Chrysler and saved upwards of 1 million jobs? The democratic caucus, and President Obama, who is still very popular in his old state. In the end, those two elements come through for Giannoulias, and he wins a very very close race. I expect a recount here, but the Dem's sneak one by.

Reid(D) vs. Angle(R): This is a frustrating race for everybody. Reid should be beatable because he is the face of the Washington angst in the country, but Angle is a horrible opponent because, lets face it, she is totally clueless and has some totally extreme viewpoints (like we should kick out all illegal aliens... WHO WOULD MOW HER YARD?). This race has seesawed back and forth, with Reid having as much as 3 pts, and Angle as much as 6pts. But the key factor for Nevada voters is that their state constitution allows for a third option: neither. Voters can vote for either candidate, or actually place a ballot in favor of neither. I think, when all is counted up, Reid pulls it out. But, I am pretty lost on this one.

Manchin(D) vs. Raese(R): Another state that has major identity issues is West Virginia. They are an old school state, that used to be conservative, but is big on unions (Democratic strongholds) and ethics. So, they often elect democratic leaders. With the death of iconic senator Robert Byrd, the longest serving senator, leaves the state with a major hole. I think Manchin, who has a small lead right now, and has lead throughout the race, will pull it off. But Raese could make it interesting in the coming weeks with a strong late push. In the end, Manchin grabs it.

House Race

I am not going to break this down race by race, for two reasons. One, there are about 42 seats in contention right now, and a total of 200+ up for election. Another, this race is over baby. The republicans seem to be ready to grab the 218 needed for a majority, and appear to be ready to claim the legislative body. They probably will end up with about 225 seats, with the Dem's right behind at 210. Not the slamming victory the republicans were hoping for, but a victory none the less. But, with a split legislative branch, expect an incredibly awesome lame duck session this coming November-January. Democrats will look to push through tons of legislation, and republican opposition will be in disarray. Could get messy, and awesome.

Governor's Race

I also wont be breaking this one down because, well, whats the point? Its over. It was never a race. A number of governor's retired, leaving democratic states up for grabs, and it just isn't going to be pretty. I think in the end the democrats will get 22 governorships, with the republicans claiming 28. I always hope governors races will be more interesting, but they aren't. Too bad.

The Rallying Cry

It seems the new metric to measure political movements is a rally. And it seems that the most recent progressive themed rally hasn't lived up to the Beck rally status.

Let me first of all say, thats dumb. Most people cant and wont travel to a rally in D.C. Its a very expensive city, and in this economy, weighing the pros and cons of that trip is very difficult. So, to say one side had a bigger rally and thus is in the drivers seat is simply silly.

But, it is interesting. Rallies are becoming the in thing... Beck had a big one, progressive groups just had one this weekend, John Stewart and Steven Colbert have one at the end of the month. Each has there own theme, but in the end its just about bringing people out for TV cameras and delivering a message.

For Beck, the message was far different than his talk radio and TV shows. He talked about faith, conservative roots, getting back to the simple things in life. These are things an entire country can get behind. Too bad his talk radio and TV hours are committed to talking about Marxist plots to take over the country and take your guns. Makes him look like the self proclaimed rodeo clown he is.

This weekend we had the One Nation rally, put together by a couple workers unions and some educational lobbyist groups to talk about progressive thoughts, but they really talked more about the other sides douchyness than they did themselves. Which, or course, makes them look horrible. They even started the crowd battle, which they ultimately lost by a bit, trying to look as if more people wanted to be there. Dumb.

Listen, in the end, true Americans dont go to rallys. True Americans are worried about keeping their jobs, going to kids soccer games, keeping a marriage together. Thats why I love the theme of Jon Stewart's rally, "We are here from 12 to 3, and then we have to leave because we have a sitter." Never has the American spirit been more captured.

If you think that most of the country believes Obama is a Muslim Marxist, you are crazy. If you think all tea partiers are racist idiots who want to shoot you, you are crazy. But if you think that we as a country are a bunch of disaffected individuals who want results to make our lives, our country, and our world a better place, you have a good idea there. Now if only somebody was listening...

Maher On the Loose

Usually Real Time with Bill Maher is a beating the conservatives session. But this week was a little different.

Bill went on his show with a round table destined for trouble. It featured Andrew Breitbart, conservative blow hard blogger who likes to change little things like facts to better represent his opinions. On the other side of the spectrum was cartoonist and comedian, who oddly enough had two season debuts, The Cleveland Show and Family Guy, coming up the following weekend.

In the middle of the table was Amy Holmes, a centrist pretending to be liberal but who really owns the center-conservative block of the talk radio airwaves.

What ensued was pure comedy gold... And was incredibly interesting to watch. Bill pulled strong to the center, dehumanizing democrats for having no spine, and swiping at Republicans for getting in the way. But his leniency to a guy like Breitbart, who is a notable social pariah, was particularly surprising.

Which brings me to my topic for the day, the representative democracy. Voters elect representatives to lead them forward, protect their rights, and be their functional arm in the government, local, federal and state. But at what point do voters rights of control over said official begin, and at what point do they end. At what point do voters have the ability to demand of their elected leaders to do their will, the beck and call of a community, regardless of validity or proper legality. At what point do elected officials have the ability to ignore these voices and instead lead from their own perspective, right or wrong. This is the predominant issue in our modern society. Look at a figure like Sarah Palin, she was an elected governor of Alaska, whose followers asked her to resign so she could connect with the country. At what point is that going to far? Look at somebody like President Obama, he ignores a good about of his base and governed from a fundamentally different mindset, a philosophy of whats best for the country is whats best for everyone, and not necessarily in the long term. At what point should his opinions reflect the voters more?

These issues are not small. They are serious road blocks in our civil discourse. And we must find a way to work around them. Or certainly, with them.

I Wasn't Invited To Your Tea Party!

(Taken From Here)

If you have been alive over the last two years, you know what the Tea Party is. Unfortunately, it isn't quite as cool as the above scene from Toy Story, but its pretty close. And maybe the coolest thing about the Tea Party is that it's anything BUT one political organization. It is more a frame of mind, an approach to politics in 21st century America. Now, if you have attended a rally or watched coverage of the Tea Party rallies (those usually held by Glen Beck or Sarah Palin), you know that about 50% of the attendees resort to silly costumes, stupid signs, racist slogans, and general all around idiocracy. The other half are generally concerned that our countries fiscal policy isn't sustainable, and is leading us down a path from which we cannot return.

The problem is that the half of the Tea Party that is stupid is also the loudest. They are the loud guy in the meeting, who just has to have his say, and wont listen to any rational arguments. These are the half that are the devout followers of people like Rush Limbaugh, Glen Beck, Sarah Palin, she who must not be named (congresswoman), and who tend to repeat verbatim the talking point these people spit out every day. Obama is a socialist, democrats are Marxists, Obama is a muslim, lao-tribesman, Hitler-esque leader who wants to take your money and your guns and make you poor. And literally, that is not an exaggeration, these things are said by nationally heard media figures, daily.

And this is ultimately why people wont, and don't, take the Tea Party seriously. Although half are smart and have the ability to make sound arguments, they don't get heard, because the talking heads are too busy going off (or should I say getting off? Hard to see the difference sometimes).

So of course, it was shocking this week when Tea Party candidate Christine O'Donnell beat established conservative and Delaware favorite (former Governor) Mike Cassell, who had been heavily favored in the polls before the primary. And this was very much a Tea Party victory, with the deciding factor being O'Donnell's ability to get her voters out to the polls. But, alas, not everything is heaven in conservative world.

O'Donnell has opened up as a double digit underdog to democratic candidate Chris Coons, some polls putting it at as much as a 16 point lead, which is absurd. The problem is, Republicans thought they had Delaware in hand, which is huge. Delaware is a liberal state, and the only real chance at senate victory was to elect the already popular Cassell, which is now effectively dead.

And now the shit storm begins. Republican strategists such as Karl Rove, David Frum, Alex Castellanos have come out condemning O'Donnell, noting that her primary win dooms the Republicans from winning the Senate. And its true, they wont have the seats to do it anymore. Others like the Beck, Plain, Hannity, Limbaugh crowd have backed O'Donnell, saying they must be behind all their primary winners.

But this is a failed strategy. If you support someone with a shady past, who has no history of governance, you look like a buffoon when they actually have to govern, and they inevitably screw-the-pooch. A rift, that already existed in the party, is now very much public. And its not going away. And its a fight for survival.

The countries demographics are changing, more minorities are entering, the middle class is struggling, and political parties are under the gun. So the Democrats in the early 2000's saw this, and said hey, we will be the party of the future, the party of the progressive thinker. The Republicans went the other way, supporting traditions, the wealthy, and white people. Now, they have lost what they need to get elected. Votes, money, and a future. So some Republican leaders like Michael Steele and David Frum have tried to reintroduce a big tent to the party, welcoming in the newly majority demographics of the country. But its just not happening, and the Republican party continues to shrink.

So now, its the battle for hearts and minds. One party is for choice, marriage equality, and stem cell research, and health care coverage for all citizens. One stands behind wall street, fortune 500 companies, and gun rights. Which one do you think has a future, in the next 10 years and the next 50? Its pretty clear. And its sad, because the last death grasp from a generation of thought that is now dead is starting to die off (see national polling in last month), and the country is showing its ready to move forward on issues like the environment, infrastructure, and naturalization of immigrants. You can either ride the wave into town, or you get wiped out along the way. November may be a Republican victory, but the stage is set for future dominance for the Dems, and the elephants have nobody but themselves to blame.

Tidal Wave of Tears

Its post labor day, and you know what that means... Mid term election fever.

For one side, its time to rebound after two straight tidal wave elections. For the other, as the Presidents party always does, they have to try and survive.

Donkeys

For democrats, the news has been all bad the last six months. Almost every TV host has been ranting and raving about these elections being a total Republican sweep, with a ten point margin being quoted as the determining factor. But, I have some good news for these boys: It really aint that simple. Great websites like Real Clear Politics collect polling data from all the major polling companies and catalog it, showing each race on their website which details the many chases. If the Republicans were to take the house, they would have to win 35 seats back, an almost unprecedented feat. To take the house, they would have to unseat four senators. The Senate seems out of grasp, as people like Sharon Angle are putting themselves out of the race, and the Dems look to hold a 2 seat margin post election time. But the House might be in play. But it is going to be close. There are upwards of 20 races that are too close to call, and in the next eight weeks could sway one way or the other.

Elephants

As is always the case, the party that doesn't hold the executive branch of the government is always seeking to get into power. And they typically do, creating a split government, which the American people seem to like. But there is much work to do. Over the last two weeks, the summer bump the Republicans got from bad job numbers has worn off, and the Democratic strategy has emerged: Paint the Republicans as irresponsible, and not able to hold office. And unfortunately, its working. Combine that with stronger than expect economic numbers from August, the Democrats have created a little momentum. They are still going to lose some seats to the Republicans, but if the Elephants want this to be a total change election, they are going to have to change the public narrative around, and there isn't much time left.

Hill-arious

(Taken from THIS website)

At the risk of being painted as a woman hating white southern male, I will go ahead and say this: The idea of Hillary Clinton running for President in 2012 against the incumbent in her own party is simply hilarious.

The idea that she could win, is even funnier.

Listen, I think women tend to be better leaders than men. Female CEO's have had great success in the business world, and women like Hillary and Condoleezza Rice have also fared well in the political realm. It is not an issue of competency, but rather ability.

Donkeys

The Democrats simply cannot afford to let someone run against their incumbent (assuming Obama runs for a second term), especially after losing a number of seats in the fall 2010 elections. They would seem disorganized, disaffected, and their base of followers would become disenfranchised. Essentially, the party would become dismembered.

Now, if it is 2016 that we are talking about, then Hillary might have a shot. But the same thing that did in McCain might kill Hillary, age. Hillary will almost be 70 years old by the time she would take office, and that is a little past acceptability for the American public. Best case scenario for Hillary: Joe Biden retires, Hillary becomes Vice President, and she gets to call the shots for four years.

Elephants

I think there is some danger for the Republicans if Hillary decides to run. Mainly, it kills Sarah Palin. The only hope Palin ever had was if she got the female vote of the country, along with the Republican base. But if Hillary runs, a more experienced, more intelligent, and more financially viable candidate, Sarah wont stand a chance. I'm not totally sure that the republicans even want Sarah to run, but if that is indeed their plan, Hillary would most certainly derail it.

Overall, things aren't going well for Obama. If, and I think this is unlikely, Obama decides not to run in 2012, and Hillary is willing, there is NO doubt in my mind the Democratic party will immediately come to her side to support her, and she will be the runaway favorite. And like I said, that is disastrous for Republicans. This would mean essentially 8 years of a Democratic President, with the option to extend for four more. And incumbents rarely lost Presidential elections, so things wouldn't look to good.

But, alas, I think we are starting to get ahead of ourselves.

When Is August Over?

So, this is the first post in my new Internet home here... I explain the name of the blog and the focus a little farther down, but for now lets get to this weeks issue...

(Image from here)

If you follow news or politics at all, it would not have been possible to not hear about the newest August Swoon debate, the now dubbed "Ground Zero Mosque." As I will every week, I will look into the two political sides to this debate, and how each major party plays into the argument.

Donkeys

The Democrats have what seems to be a simple point here... Defend the constitution and bill of rights, save the debate on "emotions of families" for those politicians who are up for election in November. Obviously this debate has become politicized to the point that many are using Mosque damnation to gain votes and popularity... The Democrats though as a party are standing firm in there defense, which is probably the best move. They risk stomping on their overall argument of equality if they disenfranchise over 1 billion people worldwide.

Elephants

This is more complicated. As you may know, there really is no longer a single solitary Republican party. Instead, the conservative groups have separated into smaller franchises, many called "tea parties" which serve as a grass routes movement of the Republican party. Because party leadership had failed for the last three to four years to provide proper direction for its followers, the message formation is now solely in the hands of there electorate. The general opinion seems to be that while they do have the right to build the mosque, conservatives feel that it is insensitive to build it in this location due to its proximity to ground zero, and the emotional damage it might do to someone who lost a loved one in the 9/11 attacks. While this argument may be popular with the small conservative (and mostly catholic) base of the Republican party, it is not a strong populous argument. As has been demonstrated in this debate, you cant have your cake and eat it too, and defenders of the mosque builders seem to be balking at the newly revamped conservatives viewpoint. It is once again a situation where there policy serves themselves well, but the development and expansion of the Republican message is lost in the muck.

We will see what September brings, but it is high time this debate ends. It has become popular fodder for TV talk show hosts, who always say "this debate is dumb" but have continued to talk about it for weeks. With any hope, the 24/7 news cycle will pick up a new story soon, and let us hope that it is more meaningful than this. Freedom is freedom, regardless of your personal feelings. That is why America is the greatest nation in the world, because you can build this mosque. Lets support what makes us great, and move on.

On the name of this blog, its origin is quite unique. My high school English teacher was Austin stand up comic JC Shakespeare, who also starred in some small time movies and TV series. One of his more famous works was in the film Waking Life, where he played the character "Burning Man." The clip is below, and the reference to my blog title seems to be fairly clear.

I sincerely hope you enjoy my work, and I certainly welcome any and all criticism.

All the best,

PM