Not really, the biggest. But, if you watch cable anything, you would think it is.
(And sorry if you missed me last week... I thought we had fall break off... Obviously Broc thinks break is just communist speak for WORK HARDER!)
Well, lets review the races shall we? And I just want to preface this whole thing with one statement, which I hope is obvious. I am not a liberal, I am not a conservative, I am a number cruncher. I look at politics through eyes of reality, not sensationalism. Which is the way we should all look at politics, if you ask me.
Senate Race
The numbers look right now, and Republican spending suggests, the Senate is largely lost for the conservatives. Inouye(HI), Mikulski(MD), Schumer(NY), and Leahy(VT) are all very safe. Chris Coons(DE) seems to have no intentions of flubbing the race to national punching bag Christine O'Donnell, Kristen Gillibrand(NY) seems to be totally safe against Crazy Joe DioGuardi. Ron Wyden(OR) has extended his lead to +20pts against the mad scientist Jim Huffman, and republican looking Richard Blumenthal(CT) seems to have WWF star Linda McMahon in the sleeper. And of course, Americas true sweetheart mom Patty Murray(WA) seems to have gained the upper hand against Tea Party favorite Dino Rossi.
This gives the Democrats 49 safe seats to the Republicans 46. Because of Joe Bidens vote, the Dem's only need one more seat for a majority, and I think they will get it. There are about 5 races still up for grabs, lets look at them.
Barbara Boxer(D) Vs. Carly Fiorina(R): The race for the open California seat is getting good. Barbara Boxer, long believed to be safe, has had a tough time against the former HP CEO Fiorina who brings the aura of fiscal responsibility with her as a former business woman. But, Boxer is incredibly popular in California, and the population centers of the state, which determine the electorate, HATE all conservative candidates. The last 15 polls, spanning the last month, have all had Boxer in the lead by anywhere from 2 to 9 points. The thought here is, Boxer will win reelection, probably by about 4-5 points.
Michael Bennet(D) vs. Ken Buck(R): As a state, Colorado has no idea what it is. Conservative mountain farmers or progressive ski lovers, it is totally lost. It was a big pick up state in the 2008 elections, but appears to be converted to Republican territory here in 2010. Bennet, who is incredibly boring, is losing by an average of 2pts to his republican challenger, but Bennet is still believed to have a strong chance... Why? Because Buck has some extremely suspect opinions that don't really jive with Colorado population centers, like that pot shouldn't be legal, and that homosexuality is akin to alcoholism in that "it is a personal choice." But, in this atmosphere, even the dumbest senate candidates can win. And in the end, unless Bennet gets more democratic support, Buck will probably pull it off.
Giannoulias(D) vs. Kirk(R): This is frat boy vs. opie in the race for President Obama's old seat, which was famously put up for sale by former Illinois Governor Roddy B. Literally, this race is tied. Kirk had held a tiny lead about a month ago, but it was never more than 2pts, well within the margin for error, and the democratic push right now seems to be helping Giannoulias. In the end, with a state like Illinois, there are two big factors: Auto unions, and Chicago. Ok, so the Dem's have Chicago, Giannoulias is extremely popular there. The auto unions, well, lets think... Who just recently bailed out GM and Chrysler and saved upwards of 1 million jobs? The democratic caucus, and President Obama, who is still very popular in his old state. In the end, those two elements come through for Giannoulias, and he wins a very very close race. I expect a recount here, but the Dem's sneak one by.
Reid(D) vs. Angle(R): This is a frustrating race for everybody. Reid should be beatable because he is the face of the Washington angst in the country, but Angle is a horrible opponent because, lets face it, she is totally clueless and has some totally extreme viewpoints (like we should kick out all illegal aliens... WHO WOULD MOW HER YARD?). This race has seesawed back and forth, with Reid having as much as 3 pts, and Angle as much as 6pts. But the key factor for Nevada voters is that their state constitution allows for a third option: neither. Voters can vote for either candidate, or actually place a ballot in favor of neither. I think, when all is counted up, Reid pulls it out. But, I am pretty lost on this one.
Manchin(D) vs. Raese(R): Another state that has major identity issues is West Virginia. They are an old school state, that used to be conservative, but is big on unions (Democratic strongholds) and ethics. So, they often elect democratic leaders. With the death of iconic senator Robert Byrd, the longest serving senator, leaves the state with a major hole. I think Manchin, who has a small lead right now, and has lead throughout the race, will pull it off. But Raese could make it interesting in the coming weeks with a strong late push. In the end, Manchin grabs it.
House Race
I am not going to break this down race by race, for two reasons. One, there are about 42 seats in contention right now, and a total of 200+ up for election. Another, this race is over baby. The republicans seem to be ready to grab the 218 needed for a majority, and appear to be ready to claim the legislative body. They probably will end up with about 225 seats, with the Dem's right behind at 210. Not the slamming victory the republicans were hoping for, but a victory none the less. But, with a split legislative branch, expect an incredibly awesome lame duck session this coming November-January. Democrats will look to push through tons of legislation, and republican opposition will be in disarray. Could get messy, and awesome.
Governor's Race
I also wont be breaking this one down because, well, whats the point? Its over. It was never a race. A number of governor's retired, leaving democratic states up for grabs, and it just isn't going to be pretty. I think in the end the democrats will get 22 governorships, with the republicans claiming 28. I always hope governors races will be more interesting, but they aren't. Too bad.
No comments:
Post a Comment